The Story So Far… The Final Chapter

"Men, I want you just thinking of one word all season. One word and one word only: Super Bowl." Bill Peterson

It seems like an age has passed since we were all grappling with the very real fear of an NFL-less 2011, and now after this season of shifting powerhouses, surprising performances and newly emerging stars we find ourselves in in the throes of playoff-fever, mere weeks away from the ‘Big Dance’.

The first few tumultuous weeks of the 2011 season proved unsettling, with written off teams, comprising unheralded players, mounting dominant displays and amassing surprising wins against ‘good teams’ who suffered unexpected and deflating loss after loss. As the season has progressed the ship has righted itself to a large extent, however, in keeping with the theme of 2011, all the playoff pieces were not in place until the final play of week 17.

Some of the familiar protagonists have progressed to the upcoming divisional round of the post-season, however,  the teams who will victoriously emerge to represent the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl are far from apparent. Clearly regular season performance is a strong indicator when determining a team’s probability of making it to the all-important game in Indianapolis, but nowhere is the old adage of ‘one game at a time’ more poignant than in an NFL post-season.

The upcoming NFC games, whilst entertaining,  offer perhaps the least opportunity for drama:

The 49ers are hosting playoff football for the first time in almost a decade (as predicted) and an outstanding rookie performance from Aldon Smith (14 sacks) has underlined an impressive defensive display, which has greatly aided the 49ers cause. The 49ers may even be able to contain Drew Brees early on in the game but it is doubtful to last. Alex Smith has still not entirely redeemed himself and not even David Akers’ leg, and the league’s fourth ranked defence, will be able to halt an explosive Saints offence (out for revenge for last season’s loss to the Seahawks).  


Yes, it is true, the Packers have shown that they can be beaten, but as it states in Proverbs, “a beautiful thing is never perfect”.  Any member of the 2007 Patriots will attest to the fact that a perfect season means nothing if you don’t get a ring at the end of it.  That of course is the same year that the Giant’s defence went on a rampage, dominating opposing lines and smothering quarterbacks, on their way to Super Bowl glory; that same dominance was on display last week against the Falcons. Eli Manning has put aside a lacklustre performance in 2010 and is playing like he wants to be included amongst the elite. Manning has also been helped by his willing and very able receivers, and also the fact that Brandon Jacobs seems to have remembered that he is bigger than most people trying to tackle him and is running with a purpose. However, the same system and group of players that has people talking about starting roles for Matt Flynn, will yet again flourish under Aaron Rodgers, who will lead this very talented team to victory.

Of the four games this weekend the most intriguing are those being played out in the AFC:

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Texans -v- Ravens

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In years past this would not have been regarded as any sort of contest for the Ravens. An experienced and well balanced offense would easily cruise to victory, reliant on a battle hardened and formidable defensive corps to crush the feeble attempts of an inferior opponent. 

Looking towards the upcoming game on Sunday, based purely on playoff-experience, the Ravens have the edge over the Texans, but that is not the whole story.

Undoubtedly the greatest beneficiaries of the Manning-less Colts are the Houston Texans, who for the first time in its 11 year history are still playing football in January.  Of course that is not to detract from the enormous strides the team have taken in the space of a year. Wade Phillips has overseen the transformation of the 30^th ranked Defence (2010) into the second best in the league (the Ravens are ranked 3^rd) and this was without the services of Mario Williams. This is hardly surprising when the Defensive nouse of Wade Phillips is fused with the personnel Houston has quietly acquired over the years, with playmakers at every level. Brian Cushing and JJ Watt displayed a boundless energy against Cincinnati, as they launched a search and destroy campaign for anyone unfortunate enough to be holding the ball. Assuming an opposing quarterback is not running for his life, Jason Allen and Jonathan Joseph have also proved an effective partnership at cornerback. Should Flacco have one of his trademark questionable performances, he will not have an easy ride. 

On the other side of the ball losing Andre Johnson for a large proportion of the season, and a string of quarterbacks, did not stop the efficient offensive unit from helping the Texans to its first division title. The backfield tandem of Foster and Tate is also more than capable of compensating for any deficiencies in the passing game.

Whilst the Texans have come far we cannot get carried away; winning at home against the Bengals is not the same as beating the Ravens on the road. When the two teams last met Flacco threw for 305 yards, Ray Rice ran for 101 yards and Boldin had 132 receiving yards. Foster and Tate were held to a total of 90 yards 0 TDs and Schaub threw for 220 yards. Of course the Texans will now have Johnson in the line-up, but he seemed to have suffered from stage fright against the Bengals, a far cry from the coming out party most were expecting.    

To put matters into perspective Schaub will not be under centre on Sunday, nor even Leinart; the Texans hopes of progression will rest on the unlikely shoulders of T.J Yates. To be clear NFL teams, including the Texans, felt there were 151 better players to take in the 2011 draft and 8 better QB prospects. When selecting Yates in the fifth round the Texans were picking up a QB who could develop into a solid back-up in time, not the man they would want to send out against the likes of Ngata, Suggs, Lewis, and Reed in the Divisional round of the playoffs.


The odds may be stacked up against the Texans,  but this is by no means an easy contest for either team. 

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Broncos -v- Patriots

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Statistical comparatives, performance history, ranking, rating, tradition, rational logic and common sense all dictate that Tim Tebow’s Broncos should not come within a sniff of a victory. Tim Tebow should not be able to best Tom Brady, at Foxborough, in the playoffs. Tim Tebow should not advance to the Conference finals. Everyone knows what should happen, but that in no way means that it will.

The Broncos’ path to Foxborough came by way of the league’s best defensive unit, no small feat for any team, or any quarterback. Detractors will be quick to point out that Tebow faced an aging, season-weary and injured Steeler team whom would have otherwise dismantled the growing Tebow legend. These of course would be the same detractors who, at the start of the season, would have picked a wheelchair bound Roethlisberger over Tebow. In truth, the Patriots owe a debt of gratitude to the Steelers, who demonstrated that teams dismiss Tebow at their peril. Tebow has to be accounted for and now, having shown himself capable of actually completing a pass, he is more of a match-up nightmare than ever.

Although Tebow appears as the focal point of the Broncos’ success this season, it is clear that a solid defence (greatly aided by rookie Von Miller) and McGahee’s stout running performances have all played a vital role. However, try as you might, there is no escaping the 'Tebow Factor' which has captured the attention of fans and non-fans alike, across the world. To date there has not been an adequate definition of the Tebow Factor, nor a breakdown or presentation of what exactly it encapsulates – but this is very much the point, it is not something that can be broken down or presented in a statistical or even rational manner.

I am sure to be berated and ridiculed for even mentioning the two in the same sentence, but when I think of the Tebow Factor, I think of Michael Jordan. Before you navigate away from the page and delete BritCoastOffense from your browser history hear me out... Michael Jordon was unique and transcended the sport that he mastered, I am not suggesting (and will never suggest) that Tebow displays the same dominance and brilliance on the gridiron that Jordan did on the court; where I believe the comparison lies is when a game is on the line.    

In the last seconds, of the last quarter of a game the four other players on the court and the entire Bulls side-line were comforted in knowing that the ball would be placed in Jordan’s hands. We as fans shared that comfort and ‘knew’ that Jordan would sink the basket. Tebow is not blessed with the mechanics of an elite NFL quarterback, but I believe the Broncos are comfortable with having the ball and game in his hands in the fourth quarter; they know that if there is a chance to win the game Tebow will do whatever it takes to capitalise on that, and Broncos fans 'know' that he will pull through. 

In a week that has seen members of the Jets openly criticise Sanchez’ performance, I believe this says more about Tebow than any stat sheet ever will. There is also no doubt that Tebow has been thinking of one word all season.... win.

The Race to Luck

“Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.” Vince Lombardi

As I have previously mentioned this season is not playing out the way it was ‘supposed to’; as such it would be premature, to say the least, for teams to be designing their superbowl rings or gathering in their war rooms to formulate a plan of attack in free agency and the draft.

However, once the clock ran out on the final game of week 6 we can say for certain that, based purely on the number of games won, the Packers are the NFL’s best team and the Colts, Dolphins and Rams share the accolade of being its worst.  

Bizarrely, and perhaps in response to the shock of the unknown, a “Suck for Luck” campaign has emerged  which has prompted commentators and fans alike to seriously moot the prospect of NFL teams purposefully losing in order to lay claim to the number 1 draft pick; or in other words secure the services of Andrew Luck. When last checked “Suck for Luck” had 86,500,000 results on Google and @SuckForLuck had over 1600 followers on Twitter.

I refuse to believe that any professional athlete would set out, commit or in any way hope to lose, and similarly do not accept that any real fan would will their team to defeat. Let us not forget that in order to be included amongst the 53 men on an NFL team’s roster, you are likely to have the sort of desire, will and competitive temperament to mean you care about coming first in an egg and spoon race, let alone hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. It is also highly improbable that the worst team of 2011 magically transforms into the best team in 2012 merely by the addition of a rookie QB. A team is in the position to draft no 1 because a great many things have gone wrong, and that would not be remedied by virtue of the fact that Andrew Luck is under centre on opening day.

In spite of the above it would be foolhardy to ignore the fact that at the end of this season one team is going to be awarded the first pick in the draft, and the consensus number one pick is Andrew Luck. The interesting question is not so much who is going to get the first pick, but who would actually use it to get Luck?

At this stage in the season the most likely candidates for  the number one pick are the Colts, Dolphins or Rams, and this is unlikely to change any time soon. Looking ahead to week 7 it will be surprising if any of these under-performing teams go on to mark a notch in the win column.  The Colts play away to the Saints, whose high powered offence will look to make amends for the loss to the Bucs.  The Dolphins host a rested Broncos team, who have had time to prepare and adjust with Tebow at the helm; Tebow in turn will be motivated to cement his place as the starting QB. The Rams play away to the Cowboys and I can think of no better way for Tony Romo to keep his mounting critics at bay (for at least one week) than to beat up on the poor, defenceless Rams.    

Would any of these win-less wonders actually take Luck? The Dolphins, who have been in the market for a legitimate franchise QB since Marino, would almost certainly pull the trigger. The Colts cannot be ruled out of the equation entirely; securing the services of a viable replacement to the ageing, injured Manning would not be unwise. Failing that the Colts would most likely follow the Rams, who would trade the number 1 pick for gargantuan compensation - what a stroke of luck that would be.