Don’t Call it a Comeback

“The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.” Warren Buffett

Ali -v- Frazier, Holyfield -v- Tyson,  Balboa -v- Creed, Tom -v- Jerry; everyone loves a re-match and the eagerly anticipated game on Sunday features the next instalment to join that vaunted list; Brady -v-  E Manning.

Strangely though it became clear very early on that the focus of Super Bowl XLVI was not so much on which team would emerge triumphant, but which of Brady’s or Manning’s legend would be best served by a victory on Sunday. This implies that the four quarters due to be played out in Indianapolis hold no intrinsic value in and of themselves; that the other 104 men striving and praying for a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy matter not.    

Of course there are some very real questions and interesting debates surrounding both Brady and Eli, and some very knowledgeable and well respected commentators have lent their weight to the same. Whilst entertaining, all the postulation and in-depth statistical and historical analysis detract from what in essence is a simple question with no simple answer - how good are they?

The NFL landscape has changed dramatically over its storied history and has always been, and will always be, home to the best players on the planet. In turn it is only natural for those players who have distinguished themselves to act as measuring sticks against whom the next generation of stars will be judged. I am however an advocate of players being evaluated in the context of their time. Jim Brown ran the ball over a 14 game season and Deacon Jones was sacking opposing quarterbacks long before he coined the term. To say Adrian Peterson is not as good a back because he has 16 games in which to amass yards, or DeMarcus Ware any less a threat because all his sacks are recorded is short-sighted to say the least.

Regardless of the era or the rules and trends that dictate play, the NFL ultimately distinguishes players in two ways. The first occurs during a player’s tenure where he is asked to compete in order to win the Super Bowl. The second occurs after a player has walked away from the game where, should he be deemed worthy, he is enshrined in the Hall of Fame. If you’re in the Hall of Fame it does not necessarily mean that you have won the Super Bowl and similarly sporting a Super Bowl ring does not guarantee you a bronze bust. Accordingly I take from this a very simple maxim, winning the Super Bowl means you’re good, being in the Hall of Fame means you’re great.   

In light of the above it is perhaps unsurprising that minds have wandered to topics beyond the simple question of who is going to win on Sunday. Both Eli and Brady have won the Superbowl so both are ‘good’ (well Brady is good³), but in truth a win on Sunday does little to further advance the case of either being ‘great’.

For the avoidance of doubt Tom Brady is guaranteed a place in the Hall of Fame; he has far surpassed the 6^th round value placed on him, made his various supporting casts play better, broken records, filled the  trophy cabinets at Foxborough and helped establish a New England ‘Dynasty’.  Should Brady claim his fourth Super Bowl ring nothing much changes in reality. From the point he decides to walk away he will still have to wait five years to be fitted for a yellow jacket (winning four Super Bowls does get you time off for good behaviour) and it doesn’t even allow Brady to claim dominance over Peyton, the storyline of the past decade. As things stand its 3 -1 to Brady in the Super Bowl stakes, but the debate over who is better still looms large. Peyton’s impact on the NFL is not merely measured by wins and losses; let us not forget that even though the man has not put on a uniform ‘Peyton-talk’ has been in the background all season long, and his impending future is afforded almost equal column inches to the Super Bowl itself… oh and Peyton will have a yellow jacket of his own in due course.

Much has been made of Eli’s frustrations at being left out of the ‘elite conversation’ and I for one can’t blame him; in providing New York with a Lombardi Trophy Eli has lived up to his billing as the first pick in the 2004 draft and has been able to accomplish what the likes of Warren Moon, Dan Fouts and Dan Marino could not. Whether it is fair or not doubts still remain over Eli’s Hall of Fame calibre, doubts that a second Super Bowl victory will not abate. Much has been made of the potential travesty of Eli being able to laud one more ring over big brother Peyton (there he is again), but it is highly doubtful that Eli will suddenly be considered the ‘Main Man-ning’ with a win on Sunday. Though we will never know, Peyton was likely heading to Canton even if he went Super Bowl-less his entire career. At this stage, even with potentially two championships, Eli is by no means certain to claim a place amongst the NFL’s immortals.

With this in mind I am simply going to enjoy Sunday’s Super Bowl for what it is, one of the best sporting contests in the world, and suggest we all get back to the most important question – who is going to win?

The Story So Far… The Final Chapter

"Men, I want you just thinking of one word all season. One word and one word only: Super Bowl." Bill Peterson

It seems like an age has passed since we were all grappling with the very real fear of an NFL-less 2011, and now after this season of shifting powerhouses, surprising performances and newly emerging stars we find ourselves in in the throes of playoff-fever, mere weeks away from the ‘Big Dance’.

The first few tumultuous weeks of the 2011 season proved unsettling, with written off teams, comprising unheralded players, mounting dominant displays and amassing surprising wins against ‘good teams’ who suffered unexpected and deflating loss after loss. As the season has progressed the ship has righted itself to a large extent, however, in keeping with the theme of 2011, all the playoff pieces were not in place until the final play of week 17.

Some of the familiar protagonists have progressed to the upcoming divisional round of the post-season, however,  the teams who will victoriously emerge to represent the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl are far from apparent. Clearly regular season performance is a strong indicator when determining a team’s probability of making it to the all-important game in Indianapolis, but nowhere is the old adage of ‘one game at a time’ more poignant than in an NFL post-season.

The upcoming NFC games, whilst entertaining,  offer perhaps the least opportunity for drama:

The 49ers are hosting playoff football for the first time in almost a decade (as predicted) and an outstanding rookie performance from Aldon Smith (14 sacks) has underlined an impressive defensive display, which has greatly aided the 49ers cause. The 49ers may even be able to contain Drew Brees early on in the game but it is doubtful to last. Alex Smith has still not entirely redeemed himself and not even David Akers’ leg, and the league’s fourth ranked defence, will be able to halt an explosive Saints offence (out for revenge for last season’s loss to the Seahawks).  


Yes, it is true, the Packers have shown that they can be beaten, but as it states in Proverbs, “a beautiful thing is never perfect”.  Any member of the 2007 Patriots will attest to the fact that a perfect season means nothing if you don’t get a ring at the end of it.  That of course is the same year that the Giant’s defence went on a rampage, dominating opposing lines and smothering quarterbacks, on their way to Super Bowl glory; that same dominance was on display last week against the Falcons. Eli Manning has put aside a lacklustre performance in 2010 and is playing like he wants to be included amongst the elite. Manning has also been helped by his willing and very able receivers, and also the fact that Brandon Jacobs seems to have remembered that he is bigger than most people trying to tackle him and is running with a purpose. However, the same system and group of players that has people talking about starting roles for Matt Flynn, will yet again flourish under Aaron Rodgers, who will lead this very talented team to victory.

Of the four games this weekend the most intriguing are those being played out in the AFC:

__________________

Texans -v- Ravens

__________________

In years past this would not have been regarded as any sort of contest for the Ravens. An experienced and well balanced offense would easily cruise to victory, reliant on a battle hardened and formidable defensive corps to crush the feeble attempts of an inferior opponent. 

Looking towards the upcoming game on Sunday, based purely on playoff-experience, the Ravens have the edge over the Texans, but that is not the whole story.

Undoubtedly the greatest beneficiaries of the Manning-less Colts are the Houston Texans, who for the first time in its 11 year history are still playing football in January.  Of course that is not to detract from the enormous strides the team have taken in the space of a year. Wade Phillips has overseen the transformation of the 30^th ranked Defence (2010) into the second best in the league (the Ravens are ranked 3^rd) and this was without the services of Mario Williams. This is hardly surprising when the Defensive nouse of Wade Phillips is fused with the personnel Houston has quietly acquired over the years, with playmakers at every level. Brian Cushing and JJ Watt displayed a boundless energy against Cincinnati, as they launched a search and destroy campaign for anyone unfortunate enough to be holding the ball. Assuming an opposing quarterback is not running for his life, Jason Allen and Jonathan Joseph have also proved an effective partnership at cornerback. Should Flacco have one of his trademark questionable performances, he will not have an easy ride. 

On the other side of the ball losing Andre Johnson for a large proportion of the season, and a string of quarterbacks, did not stop the efficient offensive unit from helping the Texans to its first division title. The backfield tandem of Foster and Tate is also more than capable of compensating for any deficiencies in the passing game.

Whilst the Texans have come far we cannot get carried away; winning at home against the Bengals is not the same as beating the Ravens on the road. When the two teams last met Flacco threw for 305 yards, Ray Rice ran for 101 yards and Boldin had 132 receiving yards. Foster and Tate were held to a total of 90 yards 0 TDs and Schaub threw for 220 yards. Of course the Texans will now have Johnson in the line-up, but he seemed to have suffered from stage fright against the Bengals, a far cry from the coming out party most were expecting.    

To put matters into perspective Schaub will not be under centre on Sunday, nor even Leinart; the Texans hopes of progression will rest on the unlikely shoulders of T.J Yates. To be clear NFL teams, including the Texans, felt there were 151 better players to take in the 2011 draft and 8 better QB prospects. When selecting Yates in the fifth round the Texans were picking up a QB who could develop into a solid back-up in time, not the man they would want to send out against the likes of Ngata, Suggs, Lewis, and Reed in the Divisional round of the playoffs.


The odds may be stacked up against the Texans,  but this is by no means an easy contest for either team. 

__________________

Broncos -v- Patriots

__________________

Statistical comparatives, performance history, ranking, rating, tradition, rational logic and common sense all dictate that Tim Tebow’s Broncos should not come within a sniff of a victory. Tim Tebow should not be able to best Tom Brady, at Foxborough, in the playoffs. Tim Tebow should not advance to the Conference finals. Everyone knows what should happen, but that in no way means that it will.

The Broncos’ path to Foxborough came by way of the league’s best defensive unit, no small feat for any team, or any quarterback. Detractors will be quick to point out that Tebow faced an aging, season-weary and injured Steeler team whom would have otherwise dismantled the growing Tebow legend. These of course would be the same detractors who, at the start of the season, would have picked a wheelchair bound Roethlisberger over Tebow. In truth, the Patriots owe a debt of gratitude to the Steelers, who demonstrated that teams dismiss Tebow at their peril. Tebow has to be accounted for and now, having shown himself capable of actually completing a pass, he is more of a match-up nightmare than ever.

Although Tebow appears as the focal point of the Broncos’ success this season, it is clear that a solid defence (greatly aided by rookie Von Miller) and McGahee’s stout running performances have all played a vital role. However, try as you might, there is no escaping the 'Tebow Factor' which has captured the attention of fans and non-fans alike, across the world. To date there has not been an adequate definition of the Tebow Factor, nor a breakdown or presentation of what exactly it encapsulates – but this is very much the point, it is not something that can be broken down or presented in a statistical or even rational manner.

I am sure to be berated and ridiculed for even mentioning the two in the same sentence, but when I think of the Tebow Factor, I think of Michael Jordan. Before you navigate away from the page and delete BritCoastOffense from your browser history hear me out... Michael Jordon was unique and transcended the sport that he mastered, I am not suggesting (and will never suggest) that Tebow displays the same dominance and brilliance on the gridiron that Jordan did on the court; where I believe the comparison lies is when a game is on the line.    

In the last seconds, of the last quarter of a game the four other players on the court and the entire Bulls side-line were comforted in knowing that the ball would be placed in Jordan’s hands. We as fans shared that comfort and ‘knew’ that Jordan would sink the basket. Tebow is not blessed with the mechanics of an elite NFL quarterback, but I believe the Broncos are comfortable with having the ball and game in his hands in the fourth quarter; they know that if there is a chance to win the game Tebow will do whatever it takes to capitalise on that, and Broncos fans 'know' that he will pull through. 

In a week that has seen members of the Jets openly criticise Sanchez’ performance, I believe this says more about Tebow than any stat sheet ever will. There is also no doubt that Tebow has been thinking of one word all season.... win.

On the Wings of Eagles

“Most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all.” Dale Carnegie

It was after 4a.m. Monday morning, I had just witnessed the Eagles secure a much needed victory over a division rival but for some reason I couldn’t allow myself to fully savour the moment. Undoubtedly the fact that I was half-dead was a significant contributory factor, but I could not escape a deep and overbearing sense of trepidation as I immediately turned my attention to the remaining schedule facing my beloved Eagles.  

There are many that would simply dismiss my sentiments by calling into question my loyalty to, or faith in the team. However, I feel no guilt whatsoever in caring enough about the Eagles’ performance over the coming weeks to express concern; when evaluating the Eagles ‘doubt’ is the inescapable by-product of every fan’s internal struggle between perception and reality, hope and execution.

Before a single Eagle’s player had warmed-up for the first day of training camp the team were perceived as the favourites in the Beast, with an historic collection of talent poised for a deep playoff run. One perceived notion was that opposing receivers blanketed by DRC, Samuel and Asomugha would allow Babin and Cole to pin their ears back and go after the QB – the reality, unfortunately, is ever so slightly different. Asomugha, the most coveted prize of free-agency, has a total of 3 interceptions (0 TDs) and his longest interception return is for 6yds (his total is 10yds); that’s the same number of interceptions as Atlanta’s Thomas DeCoud (I’ve never heard of him either). Meanwhile Babin and Cole have combined for 15 sacks so far, which is a whole sack more than Demarcus Ware’s solo effort.

The hope was that the Eagles dominance on both sides of the ball would stand them in good stead to see off the Packers in the NFC championship game. However as a result of the Eagles’ inconsistent execution they are one of the 14 teams in the NFL with a losing record, their playoffs hopes hanging by a thread; a single defeat in the coming weeks will likely halt any chance of a playoff spot.

Entering Week 11 every member of the Eagle’s organisation, from locker room to front office, knew that they needed to win the remaining games of the regular season. There is not a doubt in my mind that that amount of pressure can take its toll on players; the knowledge that every play matters, that every snap, tackle, pass, reception, kick and run could mean the difference between winning and losing is a responsibility of such enormity that it is beyond the comprehension of us lesser mortals.

When I consider the game on Sunday night in this light, the knot in my stomach begins to unravel ever so slightly. Given the pressure, Vince Young’s ability to lead a calm, consistent and confident 4^th quarter drive cannot be underestimated (nor the contribution of Babin’s sack which led to a fumble) and is a welcome contrast to the Eagles previous endeavours in the final 15 minutes of play. Looking back on the 2011 season it would be fitting if the Eagles’ revival was started by Vince Young, the architect of the cursed “Dream Team” moniker.

Tempting as it may be though I simply can’t fully convince myself all is well. The Eagles have been adept at toying with our emotions this season; the same team that obliterated the Cowboys were made to suffer defeat at the hands of a Skelton led Cardinals team. Accordingly the win on Sunday night does not necessarily mean that the ship has been righted.

It may well be that the team has finally fused together as a unit under intense pressure, like the emergence of a diamond from a lump of coal. It may also be the case that they are playing with a sense that they have nothing to lose and as such are loose and relaxed. Frankly I don’t care which is right, so long as they win games.

Standing in the way of the Eagles and the playoffs are the Patriots, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys and Redskins. As we often hear from players we just have to take it one game at a time; the Patriots are not the team of 2007 and have shown that they can be beaten, a high octane and consistent defensive unit can overcome anything Tom Brady throws its way, and the Eagles have the offensive tools to pick its way through a questionable Patriot Defence.

There is no escaping the fact that the Eagles playoff chances are still mathematically alive – so long as that is the case there is always hope.