On the Wings of Eagles

“Most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all.” Dale Carnegie

It was after 4a.m. Monday morning, I had just witnessed the Eagles secure a much needed victory over a division rival but for some reason I couldn’t allow myself to fully savour the moment. Undoubtedly the fact that I was half-dead was a significant contributory factor, but I could not escape a deep and overbearing sense of trepidation as I immediately turned my attention to the remaining schedule facing my beloved Eagles.  

There are many that would simply dismiss my sentiments by calling into question my loyalty to, or faith in the team. However, I feel no guilt whatsoever in caring enough about the Eagles’ performance over the coming weeks to express concern; when evaluating the Eagles ‘doubt’ is the inescapable by-product of every fan’s internal struggle between perception and reality, hope and execution.

Before a single Eagle’s player had warmed-up for the first day of training camp the team were perceived as the favourites in the Beast, with an historic collection of talent poised for a deep playoff run. One perceived notion was that opposing receivers blanketed by DRC, Samuel and Asomugha would allow Babin and Cole to pin their ears back and go after the QB – the reality, unfortunately, is ever so slightly different. Asomugha, the most coveted prize of free-agency, has a total of 3 interceptions (0 TDs) and his longest interception return is for 6yds (his total is 10yds); that’s the same number of interceptions as Atlanta’s Thomas DeCoud (I’ve never heard of him either). Meanwhile Babin and Cole have combined for 15 sacks so far, which is a whole sack more than Demarcus Ware’s solo effort.

The hope was that the Eagles dominance on both sides of the ball would stand them in good stead to see off the Packers in the NFC championship game. However as a result of the Eagles’ inconsistent execution they are one of the 14 teams in the NFL with a losing record, their playoffs hopes hanging by a thread; a single defeat in the coming weeks will likely halt any chance of a playoff spot.

Entering Week 11 every member of the Eagle’s organisation, from locker room to front office, knew that they needed to win the remaining games of the regular season. There is not a doubt in my mind that that amount of pressure can take its toll on players; the knowledge that every play matters, that every snap, tackle, pass, reception, kick and run could mean the difference between winning and losing is a responsibility of such enormity that it is beyond the comprehension of us lesser mortals.

When I consider the game on Sunday night in this light, the knot in my stomach begins to unravel ever so slightly. Given the pressure, Vince Young’s ability to lead a calm, consistent and confident 4^th quarter drive cannot be underestimated (nor the contribution of Babin’s sack which led to a fumble) and is a welcome contrast to the Eagles previous endeavours in the final 15 minutes of play. Looking back on the 2011 season it would be fitting if the Eagles’ revival was started by Vince Young, the architect of the cursed “Dream Team” moniker.

Tempting as it may be though I simply can’t fully convince myself all is well. The Eagles have been adept at toying with our emotions this season; the same team that obliterated the Cowboys were made to suffer defeat at the hands of a Skelton led Cardinals team. Accordingly the win on Sunday night does not necessarily mean that the ship has been righted.

It may well be that the team has finally fused together as a unit under intense pressure, like the emergence of a diamond from a lump of coal. It may also be the case that they are playing with a sense that they have nothing to lose and as such are loose and relaxed. Frankly I don’t care which is right, so long as they win games.

Standing in the way of the Eagles and the playoffs are the Patriots, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys and Redskins. As we often hear from players we just have to take it one game at a time; the Patriots are not the team of 2007 and have shown that they can be beaten, a high octane and consistent defensive unit can overcome anything Tom Brady throws its way, and the Eagles have the offensive tools to pick its way through a questionable Patriot Defence.

There is no escaping the fact that the Eagles playoff chances are still mathematically alive – so long as that is the case there is always hope.

The Wild Wild West

"The breakfast of champions is not cereal, it's the opposition" Nick Seitz

AFC West Standings

If the season ended today Roger Goodell would have to break out the abacus and perform the myriad of complex calculations which have been formulated for the sole purpose of breaking a three-way division tie; if a winner does not appear after consideration of the teams’ win-loss percentage, schedule strength, combined ranking, jersey colour, mascot performance and cheerleader pep, its boils down to an unforgiving game of heads or tails, as in days of yore.

Thankfully for Roger Goodell, and those less arithmetically gifted, there are still 8 games left in the season after which, hopefully, a clear division winner will emerge. However, before we pack away our calculators Brit Coast Offense takes a look at the AFC West teams and the likely leader of the pack come week 17. 

We can safely assume, at a bare minimum, that 10 is the magic number of wins needed to seal a playoff spot and/or the division title. In order to reach this goal the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders will have to post a 6 -2 record, and the Broncos 7 – 1, for the remainder of the season.  (This of course assumes that the AFC West doesn't mimic the 2010 NFC West, which sent the 7-9 Seahawks to the top of the Division). So which of the AFC West 'power-houses' marches to victory?


All to Play for


All four teams will face division opponents in three of their remaining eight games. If this was the pre-season the Chargers would be the consensus favourites to dominate their lesser Division rivals and come away with the best record. Unfortunately for Charger fans this isn't the pre-season, and with the high stakes involved in every snap of every division game no team can be assured of an easy victory.


Aside from week 13, where we can probably notch a win for the Chargers against the Jags, and similarly the Raiders against the Dolphins, the remaining schedule presents itself as a daunting  challenge, to say the least. Over the next 8 weeks the AFC West opponents include the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Bills, Packers, Lions, Vikings and Bears; talented teams that can hand anyone a loss in any given week, let alone when they are playing to secure their own footing in their respective divisions.

This further emphasises the crucial nature of the upcoming division match-ups, which are sure to entertain; perhaps, when the two next meet, we will witness a Rivers - Tebow showdown rather than beat-down . 

Tale of the Tape

According to the AFC standings the Chargers are ranked 4^th and the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos are ranked 10^th, 11^th and 12^th respectively. The Chargers have the best ranked Offense (6^th NFL - 2^nd AFC) and Defence (7^th NFL/AFC), whilst the Chiefs have the worst Offense (24^th NFL -11^th AFC) and Raiders the worst Defense (27^th  NFL - 14^th AFC).

However this does not really reveal the whole story, nor shed any light on who will eventually come out on top:

Philip Rivers is without question the best quarterback in the division – Carson Palmer may not get the rust off in time to save the Raiders’ season and Tim Tebow may not get the ball off in time for the end of the season – meanwhile Matt Casell is so far the only quarterback in the league to have suffered a loss at the hands of the Fins. Unfortunately, as a result of Rivers' inconsistent play this season he hasn't really been able to distinguish himself amongst the group. Rivers leads the league with 14 interceptions thrown, say what you want about Tebow but he has only thrown one interception during his short time at the helm. Rivers has 11 TD passes so far, which is only two more TD passes than Casell, and five more than Tebow who was not the starter at the beginning of the season. 

Despite their modest rankings, Oakland and Denver can always rely on the running game of McFadden (614yds 4TDs) and McGahee (623yds 3 TDs)  to push them over the top, and with Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates roaming the field the Chargers are only ever one pass away from a winning TD. On the other side of the ball the Chiefs are ranked third in the league in interceptions with 13, which is more than double the 21^st ranked Broncos measly tally of 6. The Broncos have also amassed 20 sacks which is slightly more than the Chiefs 9 (Von Miller has amassed 6.5 alone).


In short it would appear that no team has the complete package - regardless of where they happen to rank in the Conference.


And the Winner is....


No idea - but its going to be an entertaining show as the rest of the season plays out. The smart money would always be on the late-blooming Chargers to limp their way into the playoffs, but if this season has taught us anything its that the smart choice can quickly be made to look stupid. Come week 17 one of the four teams constituting the AFC West will stand atop the pile; failing that we'll just toss a coin - I call heads.

The Story So Far... Chapter 2

“Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't” Anonymous 

With the ushering in of week 9 of the 2011 campaign, we now begin to approach the business end of the NFL season. As the weeks mount the playoff picture comes into focus and the pieces start to fall into place; every victory moves a team closer to a coveted playoff spot and every loss takes them that much further away.

However, at this stage of the season the picture is far from clear and there is still an uneasy feeling when stopping to think about what we really do ‘know’. Brit Coast Offense is prepared to go as far as saying that the Packers are good and the Colts are bad. This however sheds little, if any, light on which teams will be left fighting it out in January.

Brit Coast Offense was previously intrigued with the developing storylines surrounding the Colts, Lions and Vikes:

As intimated above the story with the Colts is not so interesting, they are just plain bad, very, very bad.

After decades of dissapointment Lions fans can hold their heads high and for once have rational expectations of their team’s success. In spite of this, the jury is still very much out on the Lions. Megatron is having a Pro Bowl season and is certainly in the conversation when discussing the best receivers in the league, Suh is always poised to reac havoc on opposing lines and quarterbacks and the team as a whole looks to have approached the 2011 season with renewed vigour. However, there are still a few hurdles to clear; after their week 9 bye the Lions face an unforgiving schedule with the Bears, Saints and Vikings all potential candidates to hand the Lions a loss, oh and they play the Packers... twice. Add to this the fact that Matthew Stafford, based on his short NFL tenure to date, is only ever one hit away from the IR list and Lions fans are still in with a chance of having their high hopes dashed.

As for the Vikings - well as predicted Ponder has been named the starter and looks comfortable under centre. The job is Ponder’s to lose; say what you will about McNabb, but there can be no question that he is the consummate professional, there will be no power struggles or distracting dramas in the locker room from No 5. The switch to Ponder also seems to have jolted the Vikes offence into another gear and may well prove to be the move that saved the Vikes their season, and Leslie Frasier his job. In other developments AP and Jared Allen have moved up to lead the league in rushing (798yds) and sacks (12.5) respectively. The Vikings have the pieces in place to be succesful, and a legitimate chance of a long playoff run - the only thing that can get in the way of the Vikings is the Vikings.

The remaining weeks of the NFL season present themselves as arguably the most intriguing for a while, as at this stage the permutations of playoff teams are vast. There are a few that Brit Coast Offense will be keeping a particular eye on.

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Who Wins the Beast?

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Presently the New York Giants (5-2) sit atop the NFC East but in the next five weeks they face the Patriots, 49ers, Eagles, Saints, and Packers; there are going to be a few more additions in New York's loss column as a result. The opportunity to nudge ahead presents itself, but for whom?

The Redskins had some flashes of promise early on in the season but they soon settled into their losing ways, Beck & Co will not be leading the Skins to Superbowl glory. The Cowboys are enticing candidates, particularly when considering their talent-laden roster; but talent has never been their issue. The Cowboys have been too erratic this season and unless there inconsistent performances are promptly turned around they will miss out on the playoffs.  

That leaves us with the Eagles. As a proud citizen of the ‘Bleed Green Nation’ the Eagles have been considered with as much objectivity as I can muster. Their dominant performance over the Cowboys showcased the sort of Eagles team that everyone believed was assembled over the off-season. More importantly than proving the naysayers wrong, victory over the Cowboys would have shown the Eagles players what they are capable of. The hope is that the Eagles' win is the product of a late turn to form, which they maintain through the rest of the season, and not just the sprinkling of Andy Reid post bye week magic.

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The Bay of Good Hope

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Whilst the NFC West is home to two of the NFL’s most storied franchises, it has in recent years deteriorated; let us not forget we are only a year removed from the Seahawks clinching the division and a playoff berth with a losing record (7-9). However the success of the 49ers is not just a case of being the best of the worst, they hold the second best record in the NFC, tarnished only by a loss at home to the Cowboys (by a mere 3 points). 


With surprising victories at the Lions and Eagles, and the dismantling of the Buccaneers in week 5, the 49ers have seemingly emerged as legitimate contenders. At 6 -1 the team has won as many games as they did all last year, and as five of the teams' remaining nine games are against their lacklustre division opponents the 49ers are on the road to being crowned division champions. Whilst undoubtedly the team can rely on Gore’s production through the remainder of the regular season, come January the production that matters most is that of your QB. Do the 49ers make it to the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade? – sure why not. Does Alex Smith out-play Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick and Drew Brees? – not likely. The 49ers will be playing in January but Alex Smith will not be leading his team to the all-important game in February.   

State of the Franchise

 "If you build it, he will come." Field of Dreams

Once the dust settled on the fifth instalment of the NFL International Series, I find myself dreaming of a time where I’m sat at Wembley cheering on the “London [insert appropriately ferocious animal here]” with fellow fans resplendent in the jerseys and colours of our players, our team, our franchise. A stark contrast to the sea of Viking Purple, Jet Green and Indy Blue at last Sunday’s game.

We all know that the NFL has committed its teams to the International Series until 2016, with talk of the UK hosting two regular season games. Clearly more football being played in the UK is a good thing, the NFL committing to more football being played in the UK is a good thing, but at this stage I think there is a mighty leap from International Series to UK franchise. The NFL’s most recent commitment is more akin to a testing of the waters, a dipping of the toe, rather than a whole hearted endorsement for a UK franchise.

As things currently stand this would appear to be the most prudent approach; whilst the crowd of over 75,000 at Wembley will represent one of the best attended NFL games this season, either side of the pond, there were still empty seats. I’m not overly convinced that the line being spun (shortened timetable as a result of the NFL lockout) is the root cause of tickets still being available right up to the game, and I would be wary of relying on this 'excuse' too heavily. An over-emphasis on the shortened timetable can back-fire; the message being that the UK needs a good few months in order to convince people to come to the game – not a great confidence boost. Add to this the fact that the Tampa Bay Cheerleaders and a squirrel occupy the most column inches in the UK press and NFL owners can be forgiven for wondering whether the International Series is merely a spectacle whose shine and gloss will fade over time.

Let us not forget that fans in the US are understandably miffed that they are already losing a home game to the International Series and are non-too thrilled about the prospect, as they see it, of the NFL being packaged up and exported. There are those who are also of the opinion that UK NFL fans would have no room in their hearts for a UK franchise, having already pledged their undying fealty to one of the 32 US teams.

In spite of the potential pitfalls, and the incredible amount of work that is needed to secure a UK franchise, I firmly believe that the next five years presents itself as a rare opportunity to the considerable NFL fan base in the UK. I love the NFL, love the Eagles, but if I was faced with a choice of sitting through and Eagles game, half-dead at 3a.m., or the opportunity to go and watch the “London Mosquitos” (top of the deadliest animal charts) live, beer in hand, I’m heading to Wembley. Were the NFL owners to find in the UK a real support base, real earning potential and the longevity of both, they would have all the incentive they needed to push through any of the innumerably daunting logistical tasks that accompany the creation of a UK franchise. Most importantly, if they build it I will come.  

The Race to Luck

“Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.” Vince Lombardi

As I have previously mentioned this season is not playing out the way it was ‘supposed to’; as such it would be premature, to say the least, for teams to be designing their superbowl rings or gathering in their war rooms to formulate a plan of attack in free agency and the draft.

However, once the clock ran out on the final game of week 6 we can say for certain that, based purely on the number of games won, the Packers are the NFL’s best team and the Colts, Dolphins and Rams share the accolade of being its worst.  

Bizarrely, and perhaps in response to the shock of the unknown, a “Suck for Luck” campaign has emerged  which has prompted commentators and fans alike to seriously moot the prospect of NFL teams purposefully losing in order to lay claim to the number 1 draft pick; or in other words secure the services of Andrew Luck. When last checked “Suck for Luck” had 86,500,000 results on Google and @SuckForLuck had over 1600 followers on Twitter.

I refuse to believe that any professional athlete would set out, commit or in any way hope to lose, and similarly do not accept that any real fan would will their team to defeat. Let us not forget that in order to be included amongst the 53 men on an NFL team’s roster, you are likely to have the sort of desire, will and competitive temperament to mean you care about coming first in an egg and spoon race, let alone hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. It is also highly improbable that the worst team of 2011 magically transforms into the best team in 2012 merely by the addition of a rookie QB. A team is in the position to draft no 1 because a great many things have gone wrong, and that would not be remedied by virtue of the fact that Andrew Luck is under centre on opening day.

In spite of the above it would be foolhardy to ignore the fact that at the end of this season one team is going to be awarded the first pick in the draft, and the consensus number one pick is Andrew Luck. The interesting question is not so much who is going to get the first pick, but who would actually use it to get Luck?

At this stage in the season the most likely candidates for  the number one pick are the Colts, Dolphins or Rams, and this is unlikely to change any time soon. Looking ahead to week 7 it will be surprising if any of these under-performing teams go on to mark a notch in the win column.  The Colts play away to the Saints, whose high powered offence will look to make amends for the loss to the Bucs.  The Dolphins host a rested Broncos team, who have had time to prepare and adjust with Tebow at the helm; Tebow in turn will be motivated to cement his place as the starting QB. The Rams play away to the Cowboys and I can think of no better way for Tony Romo to keep his mounting critics at bay (for at least one week) than to beat up on the poor, defenceless Rams.    

Would any of these win-less wonders actually take Luck? The Dolphins, who have been in the market for a legitimate franchise QB since Marino, would almost certainly pull the trigger. The Colts cannot be ruled out of the equation entirely; securing the services of a viable replacement to the ageing, injured Manning would not be unwise. Failing that the Colts would most likely follow the Rams, who would trade the number 1 pick for gargantuan compensation - what a stroke of luck that would be.  

The Story So Far....

“The more I see the less I know for sure” John Lennon

Once the malaise of the NFL lockout had passed, journalists, commentators, ‘experts’ and  fans alike turned their attention to the upcoming season and took comfort in all that was ‘known’ to be true. Approaching week 5 of the 2011 NFL season it seems like we knew nothing; the dismissed Redskins sit atop the NFC East, Cam Newton is on record setting pace, and ‘Hotlanta’ looks to be cooled.

As we all reach for a slice of humble pie Brit Coast Offense will be keeping an eye on some of the more interesting developments:

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Detroit Lions - Contenders?

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Having amassed 10 straight losing seasons and the only 0-16 record in the history of the NFL, the Lions, along with the Superbowl winning Packers, are undefeated heading into their division matchup with the Bears.

Aside from the week 2 destruction of the Chiefs (who frankly can be beaten by any half-decent team) the Lions greatest margin of victory is just 7 points. So are they a powerhouse on their way to a perfect season or just a mentally rejuvenated team, grinding out wins against relatively soft opponents? I don’t think there has been a consistent enough performance on either side of the ball to come to a conclusion; at this stage I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lions either secure or fall short of one of the NFC’s eight playoff spots.

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Game over for the Colts?

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Some small but important comparisons of the 2010 and 2011 Colts, going in to week 5:

                                

In short, a Manning-less Colts are just not that good a team. Barring a miracle recovery from the four-time league MVP it would appear the 2011 campaign is a write-off (Brit Coast Offense prediction - look for the Colts to aggressively address the Quarterback position in April’s draft).

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Minnesota Vikings - ?????????

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In the past four weeks The Vikes have put on a solid display for 30 mins of every game they have played, their only problem is that a game of football lasts 60 mins. In the first three weeks the Vikes were ahead by 10, 17 and 20 points respectively at halftime and this past week trailed Kansas City by a mere 2 points; they went on to lose all four games.

People are very helpfully suggesting that they need but put the ball in AP's hands and rely on the defensive front and all will be well. But if you look at this a little more closely, these areas don't seem to be the problem:

“give the ball to AP” -  he currently leads the NFL with 81 attempts and is the third best rusher in the league.

“Put more pressure on the quarterback” – the team are joint third with 12 Sacks, Jared Allen has the second most in the league (6.5).

So what is the problem?


There are many who would rightly argue that such posturing is irrelevant; given the fact that NFC North is home to the Superbowl Champions, undefeated Lions and a talented Bear team, the team’s concern should not be coming to an understanding of how they are 0-4 but how they are going to avoid being 0-8; the time to right the ship is now. There are grumblings of a shake up at Quarterback and at this point there is nothing to lose. In the past few seasons the Vikings have been more than willing to gamble with the QB position; after the failed Favre experiment they have turned to a declining McNabb, who does not look to have improved much after a torrid season in Washington. It is surely a matter of time before Ponder gets the nod, despite what Leslie Frazier may say to the contrary.

The Dream Team

It was Robert Kennedy who said “There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?”

Week 3 of the 2011 NFL regular season has been and gone; the self-declared “Dream Team” mustered an unconvincing display at home against their rival Giants as they slipped to the bottom of the NFC East. Looking at the current state of the Eagles one can’t help but ask why?

Like many an Eagles fan I could barely contain my excitement during the condensed free-agency period, as blockbuster signings were ushered into to an already impressive locker room. NFL analysts and pundits all but placed the Lombardi trophy in Vick’s hands, as they talked enthusiastically about the team, its coaches and the Eagle’s front office.

Approaching week 4 the Eagles are potentially without the services of their pro-bowl quarterback Michael Vick. Proponents of the ‘vaunted’ Defence will trumpet the Eagles impressive sack total (12); not so impressive when compared with the next team down the list - the Cleveland Browns (11). An unproven Linebacking core has contributed to the Eagles ranking 30^th against the run and, whilst boasting a backfield that includes the likes of Samuel, Rodgers-Cromartie and Asomugah, have accumulated a lacklustre 2 interceptions.

At this early stage in the season it would seem premature to crown the Eagles champions of the NFC, let alone the world. However, I can’t help but scan the collection of talent, skill, speed and football acumen that constitute the Eagle’s roster and find myself daring to ask why not?