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Wednesday 23 November 2011

On the Wings of Eagles


“Most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all.” Dale Carnegie

It was after 4a.m. Monday morning, I had just witnessed the Eagles secure a much needed victory over a division rival but for some reason I couldn’t allow myself to fully savour the moment. Undoubtedly the fact that I was half-dead was a significant contributory factor, but I could not escape a deep and overbearing sense of trepidation as I immediately turned my attention to the remaining schedule facing my beloved Eagles.  

There are many that would simply dismiss my sentiments by calling into question my loyalty to, or faith in the team. However, I feel no guilt whatsoever in caring enough about the Eagles’ performance over the coming weeks to express concern; when evaluating the Eagles ‘doubt’ is the inescapable by-product of every fan’s internal struggle between perception and reality, hope and execution.

Before a single Eagle’s player had warmed-up for the first day of training camp the team were perceived as the favourites in the Beast, with an historic collection of talent poised for a deep playoff run. One perceived notion was that opposing receivers blanketed by DRC, Samuel and Asomugha would allow Babin and Cole to pin their ears back and go after the QB – the reality, unfortunately, is ever so slightly different. Asomugha, the most coveted prize of free-agency, has a total of 3 interceptions (0 TDs) and his longest interception return is for 6yds (his total is 10yds); that’s the same number of interceptions as Atlanta’s Thomas DeCoud (I’ve never heard of him either). Meanwhile Babin and Cole have combined for 15 sacks so far, which is a whole sack more than Demarcus Ware’s solo effort.

The hope was that the Eagles dominance on both sides of the ball would stand them in good stead to see off the Packers in the NFC championship game. However as a result of the Eagles’ inconsistent execution they are one of the 14 teams in the NFL with a losing record, their playoffs hopes hanging by a thread; a single defeat in the coming weeks will likely halt any chance of a playoff spot.

Entering Week 11 every member of the Eagle’s organisation, from locker room to front office, knew that they needed to win the remaining games of the regular season. There is not a doubt in my mind that that amount of pressure can take its toll on players; the knowledge that every play matters, that every snap, tackle, pass, reception, kick and run could mean the difference between winning and losing is a responsibility of such enormity that it is beyond the comprehension of us lesser mortals.

When I consider the game on Sunday night in this light, the knot in my stomach begins to unravel ever so slightly. Given the pressure, Vince Young’s ability to lead a calm, consistent and confident 4th quarter drive cannot be underestimated (nor the contribution of Babin’s sack which led to a fumble) and is a welcome contrast to the Eagles previous endeavours in the final 15 minutes of play. Looking back on the 2011 season it would be fitting if the Eagles’ revival was started by Vince Young, the architect of the cursed “Dream Team” moniker.

Tempting as it may be though I simply can’t fully convince myself all is well. The Eagles have been adept at toying with our emotions this season; the same team that obliterated the Cowboys were made to suffer defeat at the hands of a Skelton led Cardinals team. Accordingly the win on Sunday night does not necessarily mean that the ship has been righted.

It may well be that the team has finally fused together as a unit under intense pressure, like the emergence of a diamond from a lump of coal. It may also be the case that they are playing with a sense that they have nothing to lose and as such are loose and relaxed. Frankly I don’t care which is right, so long as they win games.

Standing in the way of the Eagles and the playoffs are the Patriots, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys and Redskins. As we often hear from players we just have to take it one game at a time; the Patriots are not the team of 2007 and have shown that they can be beaten, a high octane and consistent defensive unit can overcome anything Tom Brady throws its way, and the Eagles have the offensive tools to pick its way through a questionable Patriot Defence.

There is no escaping the fact that the Eagles playoff chances are still mathematically alive – so long as that is the case there is always hope.

Thursday 10 November 2011

The Wild Wild West


"The breakfast of champions is not cereal, it's the opposition" Nick Seitz


AFC West Standings




If the season ended today Roger Goodell would have to break out the abacus and perform the myriad of complex calculations which have been formulated for the sole purpose of breaking a three-way division tie; if a winner does not appear after consideration of the teams’ win-loss percentage, schedule strength, combined ranking, jersey colour, mascot performance and cheerleader pep, its boils down to an unforgiving game of heads or tails, as in days of yore.


Thankfully for Roger Goodell, and those less arithmetically gifted, there are still 8 games left in the season after which, hopefully, a clear division winner will emerge. However, before we pack away our calculators Brit Coast Offense takes a look at the AFC West teams and the likely leader of the pack come week 17. 


We can safely assume, at a bare minimum, that 10 is the magic number of wins needed to seal a playoff spot and/or the division title. In order to reach this goal the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders will have to post a 6 -2 record, and the Broncos 7 – 1, for the remainder of the season.  (This of course assumes that the AFC West doesn't mimic the 2010 NFC West, which sent the 7-9 Seahawks to the top of the Division). So which of the AFC West 'power-houses' marches to victory?


All to Play for


All four teams will face division opponents in three of their remaining eight games. If this was the pre-season the Chargers would be the consensus favourites to dominate their lesser Division rivals and come away with the best record. Unfortunately for Charger fans this isn't the pre-season, and with the high stakes involved in every snap of every division game no team can be assured of an easy victory.


Aside from week 13, where we can probably notch a win for the Chargers against the Jags, and similarly the Raiders against the Dolphins, the remaining schedule presents itself as a daunting  challenge, to say the least. Over the next 8 weeks the AFC West opponents include the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Bills, Packers, Lions, Vikings and Bears; talented teams that can hand anyone a loss in any given week, let alone when they are playing to secure their own footing in their respective divisions.

This further emphasises the crucial nature of the upcoming division match-ups, which are sure to entertain; perhaps, when the two next meet, we will witness a Rivers - Tebow showdown rather than beat-down . 

Tale of the Tape

According to the AFC standings the Chargers are ranked 4th and the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos are ranked 10th, 11th and 12th respectively. The Chargers have the best ranked Offense (6th NFL - 2nd AFC) and Defence (7th NFL/AFC), whilst the Chiefs have the worst Offense (24th NFL -11th AFC) and Raiders the worst Defense (27th  NFL - 14th AFC).


However this does not really reveal the whole story, nor shed any light on who will eventually come out on top:

Philip Rivers is without question the best quarterback in the division – Carson Palmer may not get the rust off in time to save the Raiders’ season and Tim Tebow may not get the ball off in time for the end of the season – meanwhile Matt Casell is so far the only quarterback in the league to have suffered a loss at the hands of the Fins. Unfortunately, as a result of Rivers' inconsistent play this season he hasn't really been able to distinguish himself amongst the group. Rivers leads the league with 14 interceptions thrown, say what you want about Tebow but he has only thrown one interception during his short time at the helm. Rivers has 11 TD passes so far, which is only two more TD passes than Casell, and five more than Tebow who was not the starter at the beginning of the season. 

Despite their modest rankings, Oakland and Denver can always rely on the running game of McFadden (614yds 4TDs) and McGahee (623yds 3 TDs)  to push them over the top, and with Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates roaming the field the Chargers are only ever one pass away from a winning TD. On the other side of the ball the Chiefs are ranked third in the league in interceptions with 13, which is more than double the 21st ranked Broncos measly tally of 6. The Broncos have also amassed 20 sacks which is slightly more than the Chiefs 9 (Von Miller has amassed 6.5 alone).


In short it would appear that no team has the complete package - regardless of where they happen to rank in the Conference.


And the Winner is....


No idea - but its going to be an entertaining show as the rest of the season plays out. The smart money would always be on the late-blooming Chargers to limp their way into the playoffs, but if this season has taught us anything its that the smart choice can quickly be made to look stupid. Come week 17 one of the four teams constituting the AFC West will stand atop the pile; failing that we'll just toss a coin - I call heads.

Thursday 3 November 2011

The Story So Far... Chapter 2



“Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't” Anonymous 

With the ushering in of week 9 of the 2011 campaign, we now begin to approach the business end of the NFL season. As the weeks mount the playoff picture comes into focus and the pieces start to fall into place; every victory moves a team closer to a coveted playoff spot and every loss takes them that much further away.

However, at this stage of the season the picture is far from clear and there is still an uneasy feeling when stopping to think about what we really do ‘know’. Brit Coast Offense is prepared to go as far as saying that the Packers are good and the Colts are bad. This however sheds little, if any, light on which teams will be left fighting it out in January.

Brit Coast Offense was previously intrigued with the developing storylines surrounding the Colts, Lions and Vikes:

As intimated above the story with the Colts is not so interesting, they are just plain bad, very, very bad.

After decades of dissapointment Lions fans can hold their heads high and for once have rational expectations of their team’s success. In spite of this, the jury is still very much out on the Lions. Megatron is having a Pro Bowl season and is certainly in the conversation when discussing the best receivers in the league, Suh is always poised to reac havoc on opposing lines and quarterbacks and the team as a whole looks to have approached the 2011 season with renewed vigour. However, there are still a few hurdles to clear; after their week 9 bye the Lions face an unforgiving schedule with the Bears, Saints and Vikings all potential candidates to hand the Lions a loss, oh and they play the Packers... twice. Add to this the fact that Matthew Stafford, based on his short NFL tenure to date, is only ever one hit away from the IR list and Lions fans are still in with a chance of having their high hopes dashed.

As for the Vikings - well as predicted Ponder has been named the starter and looks comfortable under centre. The job is Ponder’s to lose; say what you will about McNabb, but there can be no question that he is the consummate professional, there will be no power struggles or distracting dramas in the locker room from No 5. The switch to Ponder also seems to have jolted the Vikes offence into another gear and may well prove to be the move that saved the Vikes their season, and Leslie Frasier his job. In other developments AP and Jared Allen have moved up to lead the league in rushing (798yds) and sacks (12.5) respectively. The Vikings have the pieces in place to be succesful, and a legitimate chance of a long playoff run - the only thing that can get in the way of the Vikings is the Vikings.


The remaining weeks of the NFL season present themselves as arguably the most intriguing for a while, as at this stage the permutations of playoff teams are vast. There are a few that Brit Coast Offense will be keeping a particular eye on.

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Who Wins the Beast?
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Presently the New York Giants (5-2) sit atop the NFC East but in the next five weeks they face the Patriots, 49ers, Eagles, Saints, and Packers; there are going to be a few more additions in New York's loss column as a result. The opportunity to nudge ahead presents itself, but for whom?

The Redskins had some flashes of promise early on in the season but they soon settled into their losing ways, Beck & Co will not be leading the Skins to Superbowl glory. The Cowboys are enticing candidates, particularly when considering their talent-laden roster; but talent has never been their issue. The Cowboys have been too erratic this season and unless there inconsistent performances are promptly turned around they will miss out on the playoffs.  

That leaves us with the Eagles. As a proud citizen of the ‘Bleed Green Nation’ the Eagles have been considered with as much objectivity as I can muster. Their dominant performance over the Cowboys showcased the sort of Eagles team that everyone believed was assembled over the off-season. More importantly than proving the naysayers wrong, victory over the Cowboys would have shown the Eagles players what they are capable of. The hope is that the Eagles' win is the product of a late turn to form, which they maintain through the rest of the season, and not just the sprinkling of Andy Reid post bye week magic.


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The Bay of Good Hope
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Whilst the NFC West is home to two of the NFL’s most storied franchises, it has in recent years deteriorated; let us not forget we are only a year removed from the Seahawks clinching the division and a playoff berth with a losing record (7-9). However the success of the 49ers is not just a case of being the best of the worst, they hold the second best record in the NFC, tarnished only by a loss at home to the Cowboys (by a mere 3 points). 


With surprising victories at the Lions and Eagles, and the dismantling of the Buccaneers in week 5, the 49ers have seemingly emerged as legitimate contenders. At 6 -1 the team has won as many games as they did all last year, and as five of the teams' remaining nine games are against their lacklustre division opponents the 49ers are on the road to being crowned division champions. Whilst undoubtedly the team can rely on Gore’s production through the remainder of the regular season, come January the production that matters most is that of your QB. Do the 49ers make it to the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade? – sure why not. Does Alex Smith out-play Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick and Drew Brees? – not likely. The 49ers will be playing in January but Alex Smith will not be leading his team to the all-important game in February.