Don’t Call it a Comeback

“The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.” Warren Buffett

Ali -v- Frazier, Holyfield -v- Tyson,  Balboa -v- Creed, Tom -v- Jerry; everyone loves a re-match and the eagerly anticipated game on Sunday features the next instalment to join that vaunted list; Brady -v-  E Manning.

Strangely though it became clear very early on that the focus of Super Bowl XLVI was not so much on which team would emerge triumphant, but which of Brady’s or Manning’s legend would be best served by a victory on Sunday. This implies that the four quarters due to be played out in Indianapolis hold no intrinsic value in and of themselves; that the other 104 men striving and praying for a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy matter not.    

Of course there are some very real questions and interesting debates surrounding both Brady and Eli, and some very knowledgeable and well respected commentators have lent their weight to the same. Whilst entertaining, all the postulation and in-depth statistical and historical analysis detract from what in essence is a simple question with no simple answer - how good are they?

The NFL landscape has changed dramatically over its storied history and has always been, and will always be, home to the best players on the planet. In turn it is only natural for those players who have distinguished themselves to act as measuring sticks against whom the next generation of stars will be judged. I am however an advocate of players being evaluated in the context of their time. Jim Brown ran the ball over a 14 game season and Deacon Jones was sacking opposing quarterbacks long before he coined the term. To say Adrian Peterson is not as good a back because he has 16 games in which to amass yards, or DeMarcus Ware any less a threat because all his sacks are recorded is short-sighted to say the least.

Regardless of the era or the rules and trends that dictate play, the NFL ultimately distinguishes players in two ways. The first occurs during a player’s tenure where he is asked to compete in order to win the Super Bowl. The second occurs after a player has walked away from the game where, should he be deemed worthy, he is enshrined in the Hall of Fame. If you’re in the Hall of Fame it does not necessarily mean that you have won the Super Bowl and similarly sporting a Super Bowl ring does not guarantee you a bronze bust. Accordingly I take from this a very simple maxim, winning the Super Bowl means you’re good, being in the Hall of Fame means you’re great.   

In light of the above it is perhaps unsurprising that minds have wandered to topics beyond the simple question of who is going to win on Sunday. Both Eli and Brady have won the Superbowl so both are ‘good’ (well Brady is good³), but in truth a win on Sunday does little to further advance the case of either being ‘great’.

For the avoidance of doubt Tom Brady is guaranteed a place in the Hall of Fame; he has far surpassed the 6^th round value placed on him, made his various supporting casts play better, broken records, filled the  trophy cabinets at Foxborough and helped establish a New England ‘Dynasty’.  Should Brady claim his fourth Super Bowl ring nothing much changes in reality. From the point he decides to walk away he will still have to wait five years to be fitted for a yellow jacket (winning four Super Bowls does get you time off for good behaviour) and it doesn’t even allow Brady to claim dominance over Peyton, the storyline of the past decade. As things stand its 3 -1 to Brady in the Super Bowl stakes, but the debate over who is better still looms large. Peyton’s impact on the NFL is not merely measured by wins and losses; let us not forget that even though the man has not put on a uniform ‘Peyton-talk’ has been in the background all season long, and his impending future is afforded almost equal column inches to the Super Bowl itself… oh and Peyton will have a yellow jacket of his own in due course.

Much has been made of Eli’s frustrations at being left out of the ‘elite conversation’ and I for one can’t blame him; in providing New York with a Lombardi Trophy Eli has lived up to his billing as the first pick in the 2004 draft and has been able to accomplish what the likes of Warren Moon, Dan Fouts and Dan Marino could not. Whether it is fair or not doubts still remain over Eli’s Hall of Fame calibre, doubts that a second Super Bowl victory will not abate. Much has been made of the potential travesty of Eli being able to laud one more ring over big brother Peyton (there he is again), but it is highly doubtful that Eli will suddenly be considered the ‘Main Man-ning’ with a win on Sunday. Though we will never know, Peyton was likely heading to Canton even if he went Super Bowl-less his entire career. At this stage, even with potentially two championships, Eli is by no means certain to claim a place amongst the NFL’s immortals.

With this in mind I am simply going to enjoy Sunday’s Super Bowl for what it is, one of the best sporting contests in the world, and suggest we all get back to the most important question – who is going to win?

The Race to Luck

“Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.” Vince Lombardi

As I have previously mentioned this season is not playing out the way it was ‘supposed to’; as such it would be premature, to say the least, for teams to be designing their superbowl rings or gathering in their war rooms to formulate a plan of attack in free agency and the draft.

However, once the clock ran out on the final game of week 6 we can say for certain that, based purely on the number of games won, the Packers are the NFL’s best team and the Colts, Dolphins and Rams share the accolade of being its worst.  

Bizarrely, and perhaps in response to the shock of the unknown, a “Suck for Luck” campaign has emerged  which has prompted commentators and fans alike to seriously moot the prospect of NFL teams purposefully losing in order to lay claim to the number 1 draft pick; or in other words secure the services of Andrew Luck. When last checked “Suck for Luck” had 86,500,000 results on Google and @SuckForLuck had over 1600 followers on Twitter.

I refuse to believe that any professional athlete would set out, commit or in any way hope to lose, and similarly do not accept that any real fan would will their team to defeat. Let us not forget that in order to be included amongst the 53 men on an NFL team’s roster, you are likely to have the sort of desire, will and competitive temperament to mean you care about coming first in an egg and spoon race, let alone hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. It is also highly improbable that the worst team of 2011 magically transforms into the best team in 2012 merely by the addition of a rookie QB. A team is in the position to draft no 1 because a great many things have gone wrong, and that would not be remedied by virtue of the fact that Andrew Luck is under centre on opening day.

In spite of the above it would be foolhardy to ignore the fact that at the end of this season one team is going to be awarded the first pick in the draft, and the consensus number one pick is Andrew Luck. The interesting question is not so much who is going to get the first pick, but who would actually use it to get Luck?

At this stage in the season the most likely candidates for  the number one pick are the Colts, Dolphins or Rams, and this is unlikely to change any time soon. Looking ahead to week 7 it will be surprising if any of these under-performing teams go on to mark a notch in the win column.  The Colts play away to the Saints, whose high powered offence will look to make amends for the loss to the Bucs.  The Dolphins host a rested Broncos team, who have had time to prepare and adjust with Tebow at the helm; Tebow in turn will be motivated to cement his place as the starting QB. The Rams play away to the Cowboys and I can think of no better way for Tony Romo to keep his mounting critics at bay (for at least one week) than to beat up on the poor, defenceless Rams.    

Would any of these win-less wonders actually take Luck? The Dolphins, who have been in the market for a legitimate franchise QB since Marino, would almost certainly pull the trigger. The Colts cannot be ruled out of the equation entirely; securing the services of a viable replacement to the ageing, injured Manning would not be unwise. Failing that the Colts would most likely follow the Rams, who would trade the number 1 pick for gargantuan compensation - what a stroke of luck that would be.  

The Story So Far....

“The more I see the less I know for sure” John Lennon

Once the malaise of the NFL lockout had passed, journalists, commentators, ‘experts’ and  fans alike turned their attention to the upcoming season and took comfort in all that was ‘known’ to be true. Approaching week 5 of the 2011 NFL season it seems like we knew nothing; the dismissed Redskins sit atop the NFC East, Cam Newton is on record setting pace, and ‘Hotlanta’ looks to be cooled.

As we all reach for a slice of humble pie Brit Coast Offense will be keeping an eye on some of the more interesting developments:

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Detroit Lions - Contenders?

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Having amassed 10 straight losing seasons and the only 0-16 record in the history of the NFL, the Lions, along with the Superbowl winning Packers, are undefeated heading into their division matchup with the Bears.

Aside from the week 2 destruction of the Chiefs (who frankly can be beaten by any half-decent team) the Lions greatest margin of victory is just 7 points. So are they a powerhouse on their way to a perfect season or just a mentally rejuvenated team, grinding out wins against relatively soft opponents? I don’t think there has been a consistent enough performance on either side of the ball to come to a conclusion; at this stage I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lions either secure or fall short of one of the NFC’s eight playoff spots.

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Game over for the Colts?

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Some small but important comparisons of the 2010 and 2011 Colts, going in to week 5:

                                

In short, a Manning-less Colts are just not that good a team. Barring a miracle recovery from the four-time league MVP it would appear the 2011 campaign is a write-off (Brit Coast Offense prediction - look for the Colts to aggressively address the Quarterback position in April’s draft).

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Minnesota Vikings - ?????????

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In the past four weeks The Vikes have put on a solid display for 30 mins of every game they have played, their only problem is that a game of football lasts 60 mins. In the first three weeks the Vikes were ahead by 10, 17 and 20 points respectively at halftime and this past week trailed Kansas City by a mere 2 points; they went on to lose all four games.

People are very helpfully suggesting that they need but put the ball in AP's hands and rely on the defensive front and all will be well. But if you look at this a little more closely, these areas don't seem to be the problem:

“give the ball to AP” -  he currently leads the NFL with 81 attempts and is the third best rusher in the league.

“Put more pressure on the quarterback” – the team are joint third with 12 Sacks, Jared Allen has the second most in the league (6.5).

So what is the problem?


There are many who would rightly argue that such posturing is irrelevant; given the fact that NFC North is home to the Superbowl Champions, undefeated Lions and a talented Bear team, the team’s concern should not be coming to an understanding of how they are 0-4 but how they are going to avoid being 0-8; the time to right the ship is now. There are grumblings of a shake up at Quarterback and at this point there is nothing to lose. In the past few seasons the Vikings have been more than willing to gamble with the QB position; after the failed Favre experiment they have turned to a declining McNabb, who does not look to have improved much after a torrid season in Washington. It is surely a matter of time before Ponder gets the nod, despite what Leslie Frazier may say to the contrary.